Tuesday -- Housing, Patience, Kuroda, Impatience

ES Futures:
Down fractionally but perked up after the dismal housing starts report (-17%...weather's fault), perhaps hoping Janet might remain *patient.*

Commentary:
For sheer lunacy, nothing beats keeping up with what pours out of BOJ governor Kuroda's mouth.

"Depending on oil price moves, we can't rule out the possibility that core consumer prices will fall slightly year-on-year ..."

-- none of our monetary madness is working yet; it's oil's fault --

"Even if core consumer prices temporarily fall . . ."

-- need to lower expectations --

"For now, I don't think the underlying slowdown in inflation, driven largely by sharp falls in oil prices, will immediately affect the broad price trend."

-- need oil to go back up to stoke inflation --

"We are buying ETFs to change investors' risk aversion and revive the economy by narrowing risk premium, not at supporting or propping up stock prices."

-- pay no attention --

"There's absolutely no truth to the view that the BOJ is directly intervening in the market to sway fund distribution through its ETF purchases."

Recall the widespread narrative that the drop in oil prices was good news. In my opinion, it's a big, huge, global canary.

Meanwhile, if the market starts to become impatient with Kuroda, it won't be LOL anymore.

FX:
98.65 is a critical level for USD. Below it, the risk of a deeper correction goes up considerably (along with volatility). Staying above it keeps the pressure on for trend continuation. The euro is suddenly looking a bit firmer than USD. Aussie too.

Treasuries:
10s are still trying to figure out if they want to rally or bust the Dec 24th lows. They are still showing the most Globex volume each night by a wide margin. 10s are the next biggest canary (along with the yen).

Energy:
Crude looks intent on testing the multi-year Fib target of 37.33. NG perking up again, yet not really making much progress. Here too, it's either break out or break down. Low odds area until then.

Metals:
There is a trend line in gold pointing to the 11-teens. Below that could be game on for the psychological 1000 level.

S&P Outlook:
Feels like the Fed do a Varoufakis and pull out a thesaurus for the word patient. As the Troika became institutions and austerity became reforms, patient could become, who knows, tolerant?

I'd rather focus on this chart and keep it simple.

All is going to plan thus far, but if there is some volatility surrounding Wednesday's FOMC decision, I still think the 2000 area +/- 25 could be tested, but I would want to see 1980.90 hold.