The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Wednesday -- Street Vs. ECB QE, Yen, Important Levels

ES Futures:
Bouncing but not looking impulsive, which would suggest further lows.

ECB QE may already be in doubt with Goldman, SocGen, and Scotiabank all chiming in with facts against it.

I continue to think Greek bank runs will outpace the Troika's efforts to reach a conclusion.

A survey of economists by Bloomberg suggests Bank of Japan needs to drive the yen to 140 if it wants to secure a 2% inflation target next year.

But this was the ominous action on yesterday's "strong dollar" narrative.

5s and 10s are pausing after two-day rallies. These need to rip, or face potential trouble.

Both crude and NG are catching modest bids in key areas (where they need them), but both need to stage significant rallies to flip my bias.

Gold looks terrible.

S&P Outlook:
So much for a turnaround yesterday. But even without it, the S&P still looks corrective rather than impulsive.

If the S&P cash breaks 2041.88 -- and it looks like it could -- it won't sink "scenario #1" but could end up being more bearish eventually.  If we're in "b" of 3, the rally will last longer. But if 3 has already been put in, a potential top could be that much closer . . .

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