The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Wednesday -- Street Vs. ECB QE, Yen, Important Levels

ES Futures:
Bouncing but not looking impulsive, which would suggest further lows.

News:
ECB QE may already be in doubt with Goldman, SocGen, and Scotiabank all chiming in with facts against it.

I continue to think Greek bank runs will outpace the Troika's efforts to reach a conclusion.

FX:
A survey of economists by Bloomberg suggests Bank of Japan needs to drive the yen to 140 if it wants to secure a 2% inflation target next year.

But this was the ominous action on yesterday's "strong dollar" narrative.


Treasuries:
5s and 10s are pausing after two-day rallies. These need to rip, or face potential trouble.

Energy:
Both crude and NG are catching modest bids in key areas (where they need them), but both need to stage significant rallies to flip my bias.

Metals:
Gold looks terrible.

S&P Outlook:
So much for a turnaround yesterday. But even without it, the S&P still looks corrective rather than impulsive.

If the S&P cash breaks 2041.88 -- and it looks like it could -- it won't sink "scenario #1" but could end up being more bearish eventually.  If we're in "b" of 3, the rally will last longer. But if 3 has already been put in, a potential top could be that much closer . . .






No comments:

Post a Comment