The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Wednesday -- Band Aids & Cross Currents

ES Futures:
Down moderately, but could have been much worse given the quality of earnings guidance and performance.

News:
Yesterday after the bell, the band-aid got ripped from the wound, and it's not healing. Microwaved wings (BWLD), camera on a stick (GPRO), and the front line of anti-social media (TWTR).

Microwaved wings. Beer. $163/share?

Camera on a stick looks great until you consider the growth is overseas now, which means over.

Twitter's own platform was damn near the death of itself as its abysmal earnings got leaked. Then investors realized it has a persistent ad problem. And sadly, signing up more advertisers last quarter means more people to get pissed off when the numbers don't add up next quarter.

Speaking of sad, Yanis Varoufakis and his wife (you know, the nice couple that let themselves get photographed in Paris Match wining & dining?) were attacked by radicals last night in Athens while wining & dining.

Violence is uncool. Irony is always intriguing.

FX:
USD trades as if the Fed isn't going to hike rates . . .

Treasuries:
. . . while longer-dated treasuries act as if they will, possibly soon. 10s joined 30s below the April 13th swing point, but 2s and 5s say not yet.

Energy:
WTI crude holding the 23.6% level. NG still bouncing but looking corrective.

Metals:
Gold got above 1200 and stayed there. For now. 1224.50 swing point still untouched.

S&P Outlook:
2091.05 held. Higher targets (2148.70, 2149.35, 2149.55) are still achievable, but the market is starting to feel kind of jumpy.

Fed cross-currents are everywhere. Best to wait for post-2pm-decision extremes before taking a stand. Continuing to add UVXY.

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