Wednesday -- "Since Lehman"

ES Futures:
Up modestly overnight.

News:
More "since Lehman" news: yesterday the markets rallied on the worst four-month retail sales figures since Lehman, while China's GDP cratered to its worst levels since 2009.

If these periods are the benchmarks and, one by one, the latest data is blowing away the benchmarks, bad news will not be good news for long, because the "good news" part of the bad news -- record low rates, QE, buybacks, and other forms of experimental stimulus -- is failing before our eyes.

Meanwhile, Germany's Die Zeit reports that Greece (& Germany & EU headquarters in Brussels) is preparing to default. Once again, the only place to quickly find such information is Zero Hedge -- best used as a news and data clearinghouse, not for opinions.

FX:
For me the drama is still in the USD index and JPY. Anything below 118.711 USDJPY, while not terminal, could set up some further JPY weirdness, which is not what the world needs right now.

If Greece goes back to the drachma, I will want some because one of the most beautiful, historic, and welcoming countries in the world will be (by my estimate) on sale for 70% off.

Treasuries:
Prices still need more distance away from their respective swing points below.

Energy:
WTI crude and NG look good. I still think the larger lows are not in, but both could rally more. If NG gets above 2.719, it could go a lot more (and I will be mad).

Metals:
Gold. Still below 1200.

S&P Outlook:
So much time spent meandering sideways since September 2014 hardly feels like gathering steam for a continued bull run -- more like exhaustion after too many stimulants.

S&P appears it's setting up another triangle. A potential measured move could target 2154, but so far, there have been two major move misses, most notably in December.

For the longest time each day has felt like an equal opportunity for lower or higher. This still seems to be the case.

The way that the pattern is structured since the October lows, the angle of ascent is higher than the rally since 2111. It does not appear this market has the strength to maintain it for much longer.

Speaking of benchmarks, if there is one more marginal all-time high, I still anticipate a strong correction on par with the 2111 correction.

My speculation targets 1750, but anticipates yet another rally to new highs (in other words, a wave four correction with a final wave five to a final high).

However, if 1737.92 breaks, maybe the top would be in. Then "since Lehman" might become an everyday occurrence.