The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, May 11, 2015

Monday -- More Juice, Less Buzz

ES Futures:
Hanging at the highs.

One would think there would be have been more of a move in futures due to the latest cut in interest rates by China's central bank, but perhaps their rejection of QE killed the buzz. Stimulus juice seems to be having less and less of an affect.

Quiet. Still incomplete moves in USD, EUR, JPY, AUD.

Slight give back to Friday's rally.

WTI crude has come off its recent highs with volume. Sitting relatively still for the moment. NG still looks good from the most recent lows, but how it fits into the larger picture remains uncertain, and volume/OI continue to remain suspect.

Gold still floundering below 1200.

S&P Outlook:
The VIX has recently made three higher highs and closed Friday at a higher low.

VIX term structure is flashing a warning.

NYSE Advancers have made a yearly high of 1762 yet made a weekly close of 1661, down 5.73%. Compare this to the high of 1920 advancers made in 2012.

At the most recent lows, a Fibonacci 61% of the S&P 500 was below the 50dma . . .

I still see room for higher highs, but facts such as these continue to suggest it will likely be an epic sell, especially when combined with the rising wedge pattern which is still in play.

Today am watching 2120.95, above which is game on for news highs, or a failure to crest it could see either a retracement, or worse, see us right back at the most recent 2067.93 lows.

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