The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, May 18, 2015

Monday -- Time Accelerating

ES Futures:
Shallow pullback thus far.

News:
It's Greece again. Nothing new, except that time is accelerating.

Recall Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises:

"How did you go bankrupt?"

"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

European equity markets are down across the board, while yields are up across the board. Pressure builds.

FX:
USD has held the 93.16 target (bouncing from 93.13), yet has not done so convincingly. 38% Fib support is just below at 92.18 and could be a magnet.

AUD has printed seven waves from its most recent low: corrective.

EUR looks like it has completed an ABC pattern up. Bearish potential.

Treasuries:
Still not seeing anything encouraging from price charts in 2s-30s of late.

Energy:
WTI crude seems to have stalled or is in the midst of a consolidation before higher prices.

NG continues to look good. There will be plenty of time to get long if the bottom has truly been put in.

Metals:
Gold could rally further but would probably fall short of besting 1307.80. Continue to feel that the entire move from 1130.40 has been corrective. But, since 1130.40 could have ended a large wave-A down, gold could also be in a larger B-wave up, in which case higher targets could be in store. Frost & Prechter cautioned that B-waves are sucker plays, however, which is why I haven't been fully interested...

S&P Outlook:
...yet remain fully interested as always in the S&P 500 cash market. Even though Friday was rather subdued, there is no evidence as yet that it marked a top of any kind.

Today is the new moon, so be aware that a new direction could ensue for a week or two.

Still think the wedge pattern is in wave three. If so, wave four could test the 2066 area, or lower, but should keep above 2039.69.

There is a gap at 2098.48 to be aware of.

Otherwise, two higher target zones remain in play and could function as targets for wave three: 2132.50, 2135.33, 2135.88 and 2148.70, 2149.35, and 2149.55.

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