The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Thursday -- Trouble With Bunds & Bonds

ES Futures:
Down sharply to new lows.

News:
While the rest of the financial press was covering Dan Loeb's comments regarding Warren Buffett's hypocrisy ("I love how he criticizes hedge funds yet he really had the first hedge fund. He criticizes activists but he was the first activist." -- Reuters), everyone's favorite whipping post put out some facts about the market which dwarfs the equity market -- bonds.

Via Zero Hedge:

SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS TO 2%; HIGHEST SINCE NOV. 24

GERMAN 10-YR YIELD JUMPS 17 BPS TO 0.76%

ITALIAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD CLIMBS ABOVE 2%; 1ST TIME THIS YEAR

10Y TREASURY YIELD CLIMBS 6BPS TO 2.31%, HIGHEST SINCE DEC. 8

U.K. 10-YR BOND YIELD CLIMBS 8 BPS TO 2.06%; MOST SINCE NOV. 24

IRISH 10-YEAR YIELD RISES ABOVE 1.5%, FIRST TIME SINCE NOV. 21

JAPAN 10Y YIELD UP 7.5 BPS, SET FOR BIGGEST RISE SINCE MAY 2013

INDIA'S 2024 BOND YIELD CLIMBS 9 BPS TO 7.98%

. . . it's hard to criticize facts.

Europe is down hard, most of it down over 1%. China was down almost 3%.

Elsewhere, a couple days old now, but Twitter's CFO will now be in charge of . . . marketing.  Not joking. LOL.

FX:
Eerily quiet given the action in bonds. USD edging closer to 93.16 target.

Treasuries:
Regardless of the above, still not seeing a breakdown on weekly charts. Yet the current action, especially in Europe, merits immediate sobriety.

Still hearing a lot of bull dope regarding rising rates signaling a stronger economy. Tell it to Greece.

Energy:
WTI crude printed a spooky candle on the daily chart, a shooting star.

Metals:
Gold still sub-1200.

S&P Outlook:
I am surprised by the action in futures after yesterday's close, but then again I'm not. Trouble in bonds will always be way more important than what happens in Equity Land. The big money is in bonds. Size matters.

Still, the market is now into the 2050-2070 window. There is a Fib target at 2042.75 if needed, but I am slowly adding long exposure against UVXY. Yet 2039.69 remains the all-important line in the sand.



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