The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Tuesday -- Italy, Spain, IMF, AUD, 2300-2500?

ES Futures:
Holding yet weakening. If things hold, it would suggest slightly more upside today.

Not seeing any coverage this morning of what is occurring in Italian and Spanish 10-year bond prices, both of which are down over a full point, which means yields are way up suddenly. Each country's respective bourses are down with Italy the relative strength loser. With the IMF is showing its true colors by playing hardball with Greece, is word spreading to the next trouble spots?

Still seeing incomplete moves in AUD, EUR, JPY, and USD. AUD is stronger even on the heels of a rate cut to record lows in Australia.

Are treasuries showing the results of a sudden lack of demand caused by ECB QE? It's a good question that has been raised by some. Watching 2s carefully. They look about to join 5s-30s with a possible breakdown.

WTI finally getting some love today, but will need more contracts and OI, in my opinion.

Gold could rally to the 1250-1270 area and still look terrible on the weekly chart.

S&P Outlook:
Keeping things as simple as possible at this juncture. If the chart below is correct we should see a peak possibly this week or next, then a decline into the 2050-2070 area before new highs. Then it may be possible to see a larger decline in a higher degree wave 4 before a final 5th to 2300-2500.

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