The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Wednesday -- Fewer Troubles In Bond Land

ES Futures:
Up, but giving back earlier gains.

News:
The markets have little memory day-to-day. All seems well today, so far. That is, bad news has buoyed markets. China's retail sales and industrial production figures were soft, and German GDP was soft, both of which seem to have kept the dream alive.

QE is the dream.

The dream is alive in the art world as well. Pablo Picasso's 1955 masterpiece "Women of Algiers" set a new record for most valuable work of art ever sold at auction, $179.4 million. This doesn't happen at market lows, but during periods of ebullient social mood.

FX:
AUD and EUR edging higher as USD inches toward 93.16 target, but ever so slowly.

Treasuries:
2s-30s hammered out at least temporary bottoms amid the confusion yesterday -- "Traders have been driven crazy trying to find the reasons for the rising yields!" (CNBC) For now, Bond Land has calmed down.

Energy:
Inventory drawdowns helping keep WTI crude aloft, yet the wave structure is beginning to look a bid more muddled than usual (crude often makes messy waves).

NG hanging at highs.

Metals:
Gold 1196s. Looks like it's trying to rally, but can't. Or won't. No edge still.

S&P Outlook:
S&P cash closed two gaps yesterday, one lower, one higher. It closed a little "middle-of-the-page" for my taste. It has several options lower and higher, and I would simply prefer to let them materialize.

I liked this chart of bond VIX plotted against equity VIX, courtesy of Zero Hedge. I anticipate a VIX in the 40 area at some point, possibly after a test of the upper rail of the rising wedge. Two target areas are 2132 and just shy of 2150. This chart suggests bond vols may be hinting of coming equity vols.


Be advised that UVXY will reverse split 1:5 effective at market open on May 20th. Plan accordingly.

From Proshares: "All splits will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of the markets on May 18, 2015, payable after the close of the markets on May 19, 2015. The funds will trade at their post-split price on May 20, 2015. The ticker symbol and CUSIP numbers for the funds will not change."

Headed east today to Fajardo, the sailing capital of Puerto Rico, and home to the largest marina in the Caribbean, Puerto Del Rey. Gonna look around a bit.

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