The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Wednesday -- Tic, Tic, Tic...Fed Minutes

ES Futures:
Shallow pullback, still suggests higher.

Fed minutes today at 2pm. Quiet.

Japan's GDP surprised higher, yet a peek behind the numbers courtesy of Zero Hedge revealed 2% of the 2.4% print was inventory stocking.

"Wage gains" may end up providing the perfect foil for the Fed to raise rates. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans stated earlier that if wage gains were to increase, it could prompt an earlier rate rise -- however, as a noted dove, he does not anticipate strong wage growth . . . so let's keep 'em low.

From yesterday: "USD needs above 95.26 in my opinion to maintain a corrective quality of the recent decline from the 100 level. Inversely ditto for EUR where the level is 1.11302." Both happened right out of the gate. Commodities got hit. Even JPY weakened further. Today is much quieter thus far.

Volume increased substantially on yesterday's pullback in treasury prices, yet not enough to blow away previous up volume. Still, not a good sign.

Ditto WTI crude. A terrible day, but volume-wise not the end of the world.

Gold continues to hover below last week's high, but did print a five-wave impulse from the high which should be monitored.

S&P Outlook:
Likewise, the S&P printed a clear five-waves down from yesterday's high, while ES futures did not. This action usually indicates a potential correction rather than a trend break. If true, yesterday could have been "A" of an A-B-C down. So maybe a healthy bounce then another decline.

Still like higher targets in the 2135 and 2150 area. Would be a buyer, ideally below 2085, but possibly even at the culmination of the proposed A-B-C which might only test the 2100 area where there is a volume shelf and Fib support.

No comments:

Post a Comment