The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Thursday -- Kuroda Goes Peter Pan, Lagarde Should Go Too

ES Futures:
Down but not out. Did not break a swing point.

Jitters over Greece and its rising belligerence as it nears its end game.

Imagine if Janet Yellen used these words when describing monetary policy: "I trust you know the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, 'the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.'"

Behold BOJ chief Haruhiko Kuorda . . . beware a man who thinks he can fly.

High on Pixie Dust. . .Or Angel Dust?
EUR volatile amid Greek end game. USD volatile amid continued sentiment that it's over and done.

Have never seen more overnight volume in 10s, ever (almost 700K contracts). Prices may be nearing a bottom. 2s-30s attempting to rally.

This chart is why I bot TLT yesterday.

Source: Zero Hedge

However, there is no place -- except in an intentionally growing global village -- for the IMF to advise the Federal Reserve to "hold off" raising rates. Lagarde should talk about Peter Pan.

WTI crude and NG fading.

Gold down. Again.

S&P Outlook:
The market blew another rally yesterday but got above 2119.15. However, declines still appear corrective -- yet these corrections can sub-divide much lower. Doubtful they will get below 2067.93.

Therefore, continuing to look for higher highs. Then a bust.

Much is said about blow-out margin interest lately, though I don't get concerned until it turns down markedly as the market hits new highs. But here's a chart that should concern everyone . . .

Rally fuel -- buybacks -- may have sprung a leak.

Source: FactSet

Also, this chart displays the type of divergence that I look for with margin interest. Market at new highs (or close to them) while IG CDX (Credit Default Swaps index) are not making new lows. In other words, stress (widening spreads) creeping in as the market goes higher -- an exact replay of the 2007 top. Not good.

Source: @FZucchi
Hit the road yesterday. Took the Ruta del Lechon -- the highway of the pig -- roast suckling pig, to be exact. Puerto Rico is world famous for this, and now I finally know why. Because it's one of the most incredible things I've ever tasted.

My neighbor Carlos took me and would not let me pay (our other neighbor David, an up and coming chef, had to be in St. Thomas for the day). He said he was honored to treat me to this because it was my first time and he knew how much I was looking forward to it. That's the kind of friendship(s) that I've discovered here. It's humbling.

High up in the mountains along roads that reminded me of the Alps, beneath canopies of vines and bamboo with majestic views at every turn.

There are so many lechoneras in Puerto Rico that many explore them as gastronomic travel.

Get your motor running, head out on the highway . . .

El Cunao -- the brother-in-law, on RT. 715. Carlos' favorite spot for lechon

1 pound of perfection with arroz con longaniza

Beer & lechon. Nothing better.

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