The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, July 10, 2015

Friday -- Circular Fixes, CHF Tells, Breaking Bulls & Bears

ES Futures:
Surprise! . . . right back above yesterday's highs.

Greece submitted virtually the same proposal that was rejected in the referendum and suddenly it was Risk On everywhere, even China, which scored another fat 5% rally even though almost half of the listed companies there are still closed.

If everything is starting to sound circular, it is.

CHF notably stronger as if seeing through the farce. EUR & GBP stronger, USD & JPYweaker.

For me, CHF strength is the tell that European smart money is not fooled. Doubtful that Greece is suddenly fixed (ditto China), therefore doubtful the bottom in equities is in.

Prices down from 2s-30s. 30s look the worst, and probably another tell.

WTI crude and NG bounce mode for now.

Gold & silver inching higher.

S&P Outlook:
Again . . . do I think the lows were put in? No.

Again . . . if they are in, 2083.74 should get exceeded without any problem.

The more I look at the weekly chart of the S&P, the more it looks as though an undercut of 2039.69 is required to maintain what Elliott called the "right look."

If so, a deep retracement of the decline from 2129.87 would not surprise me. If would break the bears. Then a weak test below 2040 would break the bulls.

Provided the low occurred in the light of day rather than overnight, and without technical glitches in a major stock exchange, perhaps a solid bottom may then be established.

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