The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Tuesday -- More Soothing Words In China, FX Action, THE Level

ES Futures:
Volatile. Desperately trying to hold onto overnight gains.

News:
"Confidence is more precious than gold. That’s what Chinese investors need at this moment; confidence, not panic."

Such are the latest soothing words from the central planners in China . . . where more than a quarter of its companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges have suspended trading in the past week.

$1.4tn worth of equity has thus been frozen, according to Bloomberg -- to be propped up by $20 billion? How soon before 1 billion Chinese see their communist overlords as buffoons.

Elsewhere, Scandinavia continues to surprise . . .

"Surprising drop in Swedish household consumption in May..."

"Another surprising drop in Norwegian manufacturing production..."

The effects of Debt Gone Wild are global.

Meanwhile Tsipras, if nothing else, is proving himself to be a true politician. Fresh off Greece's landslide OXI vote, he's in Brussels hat in hand, seeking what else, a bailout.

FX:
Big action today. USD strong, likely safe haven flows. EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF . . . the list goes on -- all weak. Only JPY is subdued.

Treasuries:
Showing signs of strength here too, especially 10s and 30s. Odd given the dollar action, but not if safe haven bid thesis is true.

Energy:
Too soon to tell if WTI crude is in a larger ABC fourth wave before a final low (implying modestly higher highs) or ready for descent to new lows, possibly in the 30s, right away.

Metals:
Gold tanking, 1155s.

S&P Outlook:
2078.91 is the all-important level now. Futures have exceeded it handily. If cash does too, it becomes much harder for bears. Much.

If not, lower lows still possible. Thinking a test of 2039.69.

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