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Thursday, September 3, 2015

Thursday -- ECB Today, Payrolls Tomorrow

S&P E-mini Futures:
Modestly higher overnight.

ECB meeting today. Hope is that Draghi will sound dovish. With deflation at his doorstep, he could sound quite accommodative. European markets are solidly in the green today in expectation of such.

Friday's US employment data could determine whether the Fed follows suit.

China markets are closed today for Victory Day.

AUD weak, CAD & JPY slightly stronger. The latter could be a red flag for continued rally in equities. USD slightly higher.

Prices managing small bounces over the last few days but nothing impressive. Could keep pressure on lower prices and higher yields near term.

WTI crude may have printed 5 waves down from its recent rally highs, but is bouncing well (with volume). NG continues to recline almost leisurely.

Gold and silver down so far this morning. Silver's move from its 13.91 lows looks quite choppy.

S&P Outlook:
The action continues to feel like a B-wave...and that's what worries me as long as I hold weekly calls. The entire area below 1903.07 down to just above 1867 looks vulnerable to me if price can't break out.

Futures do look like they are trying to muster a break out topside, but may need more of a catalyst. Perhaps the ECB. Perhaps Draghi promising more. Who knows.

Yesterday's close above the 1946 area was a good start. It needs to hold.

Still not thinking the market has made its highs for the bounce. But it could get dicey below if people want to book profits before the long weekend.

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