The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Thursday -- Fed Day #2

S&P E-mini Futures:
Flat to down but hanging near yesterday's highs

US housing starts, Building permits, Initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, the Fed decision, and Yellen's press conference all on tap today.

2pm Fed decision.

2:30pm Press conference.

Another mixed bag, AUD & CAD weaker, CHF stronger even with SNB holding rates unchanged. EUR stronger, USD slightly weaker.

Subdued pre-Fed, but looking like they're trying to muster a small rally at least.

WTI crude giving back stronger recent gains. NG flat.

Gold and silver flat to down. Ditto copper.

S&P Outlook:
The index reached a higher rally high, closing above 1993.48. This was unconfirmed by USDJPY which has a high correlation with S&P 500.

There is now a zone from 1920-1950 which looks inviting, while the 2000 and 2050 areas, and possibly even 2100 area, look attainable to the upside.

The market seemed to feel comfortable with the Dovish Hike narrative yesterday. Yet treasuries did not confirm the exuberance of equities either, much like USDJPY.

Trying to pick direction is guessing. I'd rather know areas where I'd act. Would be a buyer of TVIX below 9.50. Holding weekly SPY 200 calls against weekly 195 puts. One side should blow out.

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