Shredded once again on China fears.
I thought yesterday was Labor Day. Took the day off, hung out a swanky beachside resort, worked on September Vogue, had a couple coconut drinks.
|Made in the shade|
China is flipping out the world again it would seem. Remarkably bad PMI numbers last night showed contraction. Futures were sold. Markets tanked.
JPY & CHF strength on this China story should be noted, as well as AUD & CAD weakness. Carry/safe haven bid, commodity sold. AUDJPY off over 2%. Huge move in FX.
Tendency toward more inversion -- 2s broke swingpoints all the way back to June. Not good.
WTI crude stalled on China slowdown fears, but may be set up for more highs. As much as I think the chart is suspect, the market doesn't care. And only the market matters.
Gold and silver not very convincing of much higher in their current patterns for now.
If the ABC or triangle thesis is correct, the market may be setting up for a counter-intuitive buy today.
It doesn't look impulsive up, and doesn't look impulsive down. So far, then, it feels like a building B-wave.
Hedging the last of my UVXY position at levels far above where they were at the most recent mkt lows (took profits in the pre-market already) with SPY weekly calls, probably 195s depending on price. Premiums are getting pumped due to VVIX -- VIX of VIX -- running higher than Lehman levels.
Interestingly, UVXY and TVIX had it right (for today's move at least) while VIX itself is nowhere near implied levels. Another reason why I want to hedge and spec long.
If wrong, UVXY will explode higher and the calls will likely go out worthless, but it keeps me from getting out too early.