The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, October 9, 2015

Friday -- "Hey, Pay Attention"

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher but coming off their best overnight levels.

Reuters is sounding the All-clear signal -- Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief

Would not call it Fed relief. Would call it Fed confusion. Nonetheless, the Fed minutes were perceived as dovish, and for now, that is what matters.

CHF continues to strengthen which is usually a safe haven tell.

Have flown in the face of my opinion this week. Higher prices have not materialized, which, along with much higher equity prices, is a disconnect and a warning.

WTI crude still higher but not on volume. NG lower.

Gold and silver higher in unison with copper ripping.

S&P Outlook:
Have largely gotten my wish since last Friday -- "I'd rather see a market rally crush TVIX below 7 so I can add a lot more."

TVIX has gone as low as 8.13 in the pre-market. A thrust above 2020.86 should provoke a VIX low or at least some sort of market reaction from profit taking. Still adding more TVIX. Why?

In addition to bringing down my TVIX basis while accumulating a position, the underlying --VIX -- is trading very close to its lower 2 standard deviation band. A close below it then a close above it would be another classic market sell signal. The last one occurred at the July 20 highs and was a ripper.

Above, however, are a confluence of great targets:

2031.28 is the 61.8% level from the 1867.01 low measured from the July 20 2132.82 high.

2032.45 is the 61.8% level from the 1867.01 low measured from the May 20 2134.72 peak.

2035.73 is a gap from August's waterfall decline.

There are even higher levels and targets, but I don't want to be greedy with volume falling and A/Ds contracting and VIX setting up and TRIN saying "Hey, pay attention."

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