The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Tuesday -- Trouble In Norway, Calm Elsewhere

S&P E-mini Futures:
Flat to down.

Hilarious headline from ZH: "Futures Fail To Surge Despite Continuing Onsalught Of Poor Economic Data."

Sadly, it's probably quite true.

Yet Europe is green, and Asia had a good night. We had a great day yesterday, so a little pullback should not be unexpected. In fact, it's milder than I'd have thought.

Here's a bit of reality, in Norway.

Bloomberg is reporting that the world's largest sovereign wealth fund -- Norway's gargantuan $830 billion SWF -- could start making withdrawals as soon as next year "trying to avoid a recession as a slump in the nation’s key commodity takes its toll on the $500 billion oil-reliant economy."

Norway Seen Tapping Its Wealth Fund to Ward Off Oil Risks

"With tax revenue from petroleum extraction down 42 percent on last year, budget spending in 2016 will probably outstrip income."

The inconvenient truth is that the fund was not supposed to be tapped for many more years.

This potential was covered here . . . as far back as 2010.

Investing For Infinity . . . Or Insanity?

Nice and quiet.

Pulling back on very light volume. Probably more upside in prices ,lower yields.

WTI crude slightly higher. NG ditto. Getting much closer.

Gold, silver, and copper all slightly higher.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday's surge had a bit of a short covering feel to it, but A/Ds were very strong all day.

At today's open, they are inverted on a slightly down tape. If inverted at a new rally high, it may be worth a sell.

Added TVIX several times yesterday. Will add more. Will hedge it with long e-minis or UPRO on dips.

I like the 1996 area. Above that the 2020.86 "Fed day" high.

Below, would expect support at 1950-1965 and would look to hedge there.

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