The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Wednesday -- Playboy, Ferrari & Mixed Social Mood

S&P E-mini Futures:

The news to me is socionomic -- Playboy cuts nudity, and Ferrari readies for an IPO. Mixed mood continues.

For Playboy -- one of the most iconic brands in the world -- to cease that which built its success is suggestive of a massive shift in social mood.

Allow me to pull from the exact same quote by the father of socionomics, Robert Prechter, that I used in the latest edition of The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: N° 5 --

"When people feel bold and frisky, they buy stocks and wear more revealing clothes. When they feel threatened and conservative, they sell stocks and wear more concealing clothes. It is that simple."

Playboy without nudity is "threatened and conservative" social mood.

This is understandable at the current market juncture which could be a wave four consolidation, and tend to cause "surprising disappointment" in Elliott parlance.

Yet such a monumental shift by Playboy could foreshadow the coming mood changes that will ripple through society when the market eventually corrects the move from the 2009 lows, and possibly the move from the 1982 lows.

Meanwhile, bright red Ferrari, another equally iconic brand, readies for an IPO, with a socionomically robust ticker symbol RACE.

Just a few months ago I had thought that the Rolls Royce SUV marked the top in social mood. Ferrari's IPO may overpower it.

Moodwise, it may suggest a race to the top after the proposed fourth-wave low, and, if it's indeed a final example of "bold and frisky" mood, then perhaps a race to the bottom.

The confluence of these equally compelling socionomic manifestations suggests we are still navigating the badlands of mixed social mood. Higher and lower is still possible.

Today is all about GBP. Britain's jobless rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than seven years and GBP is on fire. USD down, EUR up.

Conforming to expectations -- higher prices -- but doing so on weak volume.

WTI crude and NG down fractionally ahead of API inventory numbers. Volume scant here too.

Gold, silver, and copper up fractionally. Gold in particular is powering higher on low volume.

S&P Outlook:
In line with the New Moon's propensity for change, the market may have started the minor correction expected for several days.

It's not the most impressive one thus far.

Unless a bounce fails and a stronger retracement occurs, it is doubtful that a higher odds hedging opportunity will materialize. But one still can.

The gap at 1951.36 looks compelling. So does the 2131.28 -- 2035.73 zone, and the 2050 area.

Doubtful that the B-wave has given up the ghost yet. They are tricky waves to trade. Yet the dearth of volume in many markets is a red flag.

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