The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, November 6, 2015

Friday -- Bam!

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but recovering.

Blowout jobs number stick save for Fed to raise rates. But that's not the big story . . .

. . . the big story is the US dollar. It's crushing everything as the massive FX market consumes everything in its path and USD action confirms higher rates . . .

Prices crushed (yet recovering from extremes) as yields skyrocket toward inversion (this still needs to be watched closely) . . .

WTI crude & NG hammered by USD strength . . .

Gold & silver cratering yet copper firm (possibly a hint that China isn't as doomed as people think) . . .

S&P Outlook:
FX dwarfs the equity & credit markets, and today is a taste of what can happen when widespread disbelief goes wrong, especially when, over and over, it has been said that the dollar is toast.

The counter-intuitive trade is happening right now in the e-minis -- they're firm. I bot in the pre-market with a stop at ES 2082 (if it acts weird after the open, or if ES 2098 can't get taken out, I'll be out well before stopped). (((corrected stop 9:46am: 2088.50 stop)))

Simply put, today's jobs number should have pummeled the futures but it didn't last. Perhaps the Fed's disinformation plan is working and the market believes that the economy is actually getting better. Doubtful.

To me, it's the wave count, which still suggests higher prices come what may.

Yet I still lay in wait in the tall grass for the higher prices for weak to wander from the herd -- the over-bullish ones -- at the completed wave count.

Until then, I want to remain cautiously long with ETFs against 2079.34 and with e-minis against ES 2082. (((corrected stop 9:46am: 2088.50 stop)))

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