The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, November 13, 2015

Friday -- Dovespook, Part 2

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down modestly.

After yesterday's full barrage of hawkish Fedspeak which followed previous spookish Dovespeak and drove the markets nuts again (meaning down), Fed Vice Chairman Fischer may be carrying an olive branch wrapped in tea leaves.

From Bloomberg, the Fed’s decision to delay raising interest rates has helped to offset the economic headwinds caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said, adding that it “may be appropriate” to raise rates next month.

So if the dollar keeps breaking out to new rally highs, this sounds suspiciously like another reason why the Fed could pause yet again.

Someone recently conjectured that the Fed is trying to cry wolf so many times that when it does finally raise rates the markets won't care. They may be right. If so, its the policy of impotence.

Meanwhile, Asia had a bad night. And Europe is very red at the moment.

USD not getting Fischer's message today...

But treasuries might be. Prices are continuing to make a weak drive higher.

WTI crude at the moment remains pointed down, yet massive supplies stored in ships could disrupt price dynamics near term. Still thinking the final lows are not in, however.

NG enjoying another up day.

Gold, silver, and copper flat to down respectively.

S&P Outlook:
The S&P may be targeting the lower Fib target cited yesterday -- 2038.70.

Yesterday helped the bearish case price wise, wave wise, and personality wise.

If the index wants to go for the kill and establish a bearish wave count (and negate the nearer term bullish potentials) it must do it over the course of the next few trading days by extending and creating a clear impulse down.

Note that the 2038.70 Fib target is still above the 38% retracement level. So the market would still have its work cut out for over the next few trading days to continue.

A bounce above 2068.24 would call the bear case into question. There is a volume shelf at the 2060 area, plus a wide gap at 2075.

Will most likely be a buyer of OEX 915 weekly calls at some point (or 900s later on) today against my TVIX position.

Intraday TRIN closed in the buy zone at 2.01, while VIX closed well outside its upper 2 standard deviation band. So a bounce could and perhaps should be expected.

If one doesn't occur, that's a strong bearish tell. 2020 could be on the table quickly, hence cheap call options vs e-minis.

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