The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Thursday -- Green, Green, Green

S&P E-mini Futures:
Joining the chorus of green worldwide, but coming off.

First the Fed, then the BOJ, then the PBOC, then the ECB -- all did nothing but managed to manage expectations in such as way as to make failure sound awesome.

In other words, failed central bank policies will lead to more failed central bank policies, yet what the markets hear is more stimulus."

Failed policies? But the markets are higher!

Not so fast, says Stifel Nicolaus.

This may explain why negative mood is rising as markets are rising
Kuroda: Continuing QQE won't cause financial system problems

ECB Minutes: Risk of deflation relevant but declined since the start of the year

PBOC -- China's central bank on Thursday said it would cut the overnight SLF lending rate to 2.75% from 4.5% and would lower the seven-day rate to 3.25% from 5.5%

And apparently the Fed itself is well pleased that the markets rallied on what now sounds like a certainty for a December rate increase.

USD slightly lower, EUR stronger. AUD ripping, yet JPY stronger.

If everything is so great, if December is now certain, why are treasuries continuing to tilt toward inversion.

And we are interest rate swaps -- which refers to as "one of the deepest and most liquid markets in the global financial universe" -- negative and continuing to confound the bond market by reflecting a sharp reduction in liquidity.

Credit is the ball in this giant game of Three Card Monte. Keep your eye on the ball.

WTI crude down and trading heavy again. NG too.

Gold may want the 1040 area but seems close to a significant low. Sentiment is in the gutter.

S&P Outlook:
A few days ago.


Maybe "2" is over, maybe not. I'm siding with the "maybe not" for now. Internals are a little weak (what else is new) and yesterday's intraday TRIN closed screaming for a pause. Not what is expected if the market is in "3."

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