The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Tuesday -- The Ultimate War

S&P E-mini Futures:
Ripping higher, along with global markets nearly everywhere (ex China).

Terror is the ultimate war because it has no end and there is always political will for more, because if governments play their cards right, the people demand it to be fought.

Now we can add "instant identification of the culprits" to the mounting evidence that currently nothing is as it seems. Supposedly the "mastermind" has been identified.

We are slowly being dragged into a war between competing caliphates.

Now France is at war in a united front against radical Islam (which may have been the ulterior motive all along, after being warned cryptically that "Terror will come to Europe") and is considering a new constitution that will give the government sweeping authoritative powers previously available only under martial law or the Patriot Act.

European markets are ripping higher as it appears the real reason for war is to make gobs of money.

Sorry if I view such events through a dark lens (losing a former girlfriend in Tower 1 will do that), but two bits of info may be illuminating at this time, one from 2005 and one from 2007. I don't necessarily agree with the scope of the speculation in the links, but the parallels are striking.

I will also add a weird thing that happened Friday. I recently got a new apartment and stepped away from the screens to meet with my former landlord to pick up my security deposit, thinking it would only take about 20-30 minutes. He invited me to meet him at a nearby Dominican restaurant for a drink.

I got there around 12:30pm and didn't leave until 5pm. Bad boy.

Yet it was a great day. We progressed from business to genuine friendship over the course of those hours and made plans to hang out again. In addition to several ice cold Presidente pilsners he even bought me lunch. We had fricase de cabrito, goat stew, which he said was "almost as good as his mother's."

The weird thing is that around 4:30pm local time (1 hour ahead of NY time) one of his friends called. I'll call him Mr. Black.

Mr. Black and my landlord (Mr. Pink from now on) were old buddies from the military. Mr. Pink flew F-16s, and Mr. Black ended up in some vague wing of the FBI that "he can't talk much about."

Before lunch, Mr. Pink had stopped by the local base to buy some duty-free booze for Mr. Black because Mr. Black is not allowed to purchase it in his current role

So Mr. Black, well disguised in doctor's scrubs and driving a humble Hyundai, showed up at the restaurant, quickly downed a beer, and went out to the car with Mr. Pink to transfer the booze.

Mr. Pink came back in and said two things:

1) Mr. Black had to leave sooner than he expected (they had planned to hang out for a while), and . . .

2) the trunk of the Hyundai was filled with automatic weapons, ammo, pistols, and enough combat gear to fight a small war.

The first explosion in France was 9:20pm local time CET -- 5:20pm in Puerto Rico.

I would not like to think that yet again there may have been prior knowledge of a terrible event, but Mr. Black seemed to have been on guard for something, and in hurry too. Of course, it could simply be my imagination.

But you can bet I'm watching the options market on the airline I'm flying home for Thanksgiving, with a special emphasis on nearby puts.

USD new rally highs but did not crest 100.

The low volume bounce is petering out.

WTI crude and NG tanking.

Gold and silver down, and copper hugging the flatline.

S&P Outlook:
The market seems to have wanted higher targets beyond the gap. The 38% retracement is at 2056.48, close to the 2060 volume shelf and 200dma (2064).

Currently the market is higher on inverted A/Ds and weak ticks. Intraday TRIN is flirting with the sell zone. Not a good mix.

Still higher is possible if the market is in "B" of an ABC down. But I continue to suspect it's a corrective phase of an impulsive move to new all-time highs.

If wrong, there will be a hell of a trade around 1800.

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