The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Wednesday -- Debt Defanged, Compelling Bust Out

S&P E-mini Futures:
Hovering at highs.

Just when things are starting to get a bit topsy turvy in the bond markets, Reuters chose to dip its toe in and declare the water's fine.

Even better, the teaser headline was "The debt hawks who cried wolf." Almost a taunt. Just the sort of complacent mood one would expect before things turn.

If the breakout in 3-month treasury yields has any legs, Reuters' editors may get bitten. (Ironic they used "defanged" when all the rage is FANG. References of late to gnashing teeth feels like accidental subtext -- see The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: 2014)

Meanwhile, Marketwatch tells us the market may be ready to "bust out." This as Asia had a mixed night, and Europe has turned nearly all red.

Two down, one currently, and two to go -- Fed speakers on the prowl. The big word thus far is "compelling" to describe a December rate rise.

USD index holding 100. AUD reversed negative after failing at a multi-month swing point. EUR weaker ahead of ECB Thursday and Draghi's potential antics.

These continue to look suspect amid widespread perception that everything's fine.

WTI crude and NG still eyeing new lows it would seem . . .

. . . Gold too, and silver, and copper.

S&P Outlook:
If the S&P is going to "bust out" it needs to hold 2090.67 in my opinion. Otherwise it may be on the hunt for the 2000 area and maybe lower.

If it can hold above 2090.67, 2116.48 and 2134.72 come into much sharper focus. Wave counts are still low odds.

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