The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, March 18, 2016

Friday -- Options Expiration

S&P E-mini Futures:
Broke above a choppy overnight range, yet looking toppy.


Love it. USD has just retraced a piddly 23.6% of its rally since 2014, and is nowhere near a retracement of its rally since the lows of 2008.

USD higher, commodity currencies lower.

Continuing bounce mode, yet volume drying up.

WTI crude higher, but looks like its on fumes -- volume drying up. NG flat for now.

Gold, silver, platinum, palladium down, copper up.

S&P Outlook:
Continuing to square up the book as the market rallies -- dumped SSO yesterday. As luck would have it, 2 ticks from HOD, but that rarely happens. Just fun when it does. Went and drank a beer by the pool.

S&P respected a minor Fib extension -- 2044.14 by closing below it. There is a 78.6% at 2050.91. An intraday Fib extension sits slightly higher at 2060.55.

Meanwhile VIX probed well below its lower 2 standard deviation band and closed just 2 ticks above it. Would have loved a proper close just a hair below it, but it's a good start. Now an up VIX close could bring a market sell signal.

If the wave count is correct, the market looks close to rolling over. Internals may need a few days to weaken materially.

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