The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Tuesday -- Bad Data Reversal, Buffett, Risk On

S&P E-mini Futures:
Sharp reversal from yesterday's shaky close.

News:
Bloomberg noted "ugly data" from China yet it seems hopes for stimulus are outweighing.

The news closely follows this whopper:


As long as the Shanghai Composite holds the 2,000 level, this may constitute a social mood buy signal.

Asia and Europe are fully "Sea of Green" last night and this morning.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder's letter is out, and Warren has dropped some hubris, in my opinion.

Many find his bullishness encouraging, but I found the phrase "Berkshire's endless gusher of cash" as a possible high-water warning. A new high above 223,000 (yes, that's $223K per share) could mark a significant top.

FX:
Modest Risk On in play thus far. JPY weaker. AUD & CAD stronger. USD firm, however.

Treasuries:
Day two of firming price.

Energy:
WTI crude up yet volume waning, NG down.

Metals:
Day two of copper bucking the uptrend. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium higher.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday was a weak close. Futures didn't care. They cared more about China's terrible data that was so bad it could only mean more stimulation.

As shown yesterday (but not specifically mentioned) the confluence level at 1975.42-1977.86 remains a live target.

But 1891 is still wide open and could open the door to 1860 if breached.

Great time, great place, to have both sides in your corner using a mix of long vol, short vol, puts, and calls. Got 'em all.

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