The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Wednesday -- After Effects

S&P E-mini Futures:
Up sharply on "lower for longer."

News:
J Yell gave a kitchen sink speech yesterday, touching on every conceivable mood point good and bad, yet expectedly, the markets focused on the dovish parts and new Ayn Rand-ish terms such as "greater gradualism."

The point is that the overall message was things are so bad globally that the Fed will be extremely cautious (dovish).

This means the medicine hasn't worked after 7+ years and yet the Fed stands ready to administer more.

Careful. It's green everywhere. Unless you're Japan.

Meanwhile in Brazil, President Rousseff sounds like she just might get bounced.

Bloomberg reported that Brazil's Democratic Movement Party, or PMDB -- Brazil's largest political party -- would depart from the ruling coalition raised the odds that President Dilma Rousseff will lose the upcoming impeachment vote. Good.

FX:
Day 2 of JPY and CHF strength in the face of Risk On sentiment. USD weaker on Yellen's comments, yet has not broken its 3/18 swing point.

Treasuries:
Yield curve steepening.

Energy:
WTI crude up 2% yet not looking convincing from a structural standpoint. NG's bounce stalling for now.

Metals:
Gold and copper down. Silver, platinum, and palladium higher.

S&P Outlook:
The higher targets repeatedly cited should come into play today -- 2060.55-2061.23 and 2064.48-2065.25. The wave structure also appears to require at least a couple more subdivisions.

Below 2036 could see a larger retracement than has occurred thus far since the 2/11 lows.

The after effects of yesterday may not be all that the market believes. If the market did put in a wave four low in February, I'm underwhelmed by the rally thus far. That it still seems to require external help leads me to believe it will not extend as high as I had previously thought.

True, the Fibonacci extension targets suggest a possible 1:1 at 2,363.11 and a more likely 1:.618 target at 2,151.86, but at this point, anything above 2134.72 would have me looking for a reversal


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