S&P E-mini Futures:
Up on overnight reversal higher.
News:
Europe is ripping in anticipation of further ECB accommodation on Thursday. Asia was mixed.
Tried to find proof of a supposed sell-off in Japanese JGBs but could not. Did find this, however, and it's weird:
From Bloomberg: "...failed trades are surging [in US treasuries], and may have reached a value as high as $12 billion in recent days. ...When you consider that there were just $132 million of failures in the week ended Feb. 24, there's clearly something very dysfunctional going on in Treasuries to spur a surge in uncompleted transactions."
Something is going on under the surface, and probably has been for many months.
FX:
Very slight Risk On tone.
Treasuries:
Prices continue to come in with lower volume, yet 2s have retraced much deeper than the rest of the curve which is a subtle indication of inversion (but would have a long way to go before it's an issue).
Energy:
WTI crude continues to hang in there, and volume is good. Price needs to cooperate. NG continues to bounce too.
Metals:
Day 3 of gold's failure at 1280.70. Silver getting hit too. Platinum completed a possible five-wave impulse, so it deserves its current pullback. Palladium down, copper up.
S&P Outlook:
The overnight reversal higher in futures comes at a key juncture of price and time.
Mentioned the 1976.60-1978.35 zone as a "cool neighborhood" for a test, which yesterday's 1977.43 low did perfectly.
Based on the wave count shown yesterday, however, below 1968.80 on the cash S&P would start to suggest weirdness. So the time to regain upside traction is now.
As mentioned a few days ago, the next level of Fibonacci confluence is at 2023.47-2027.60 and comprises an important 78.6% retracement, a 1:1 Fib extension, and trend line resistance.
Anything below 1931.81 would suggest a retest of the 1812 lows ...at least.
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