The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 27, 2016

Friday -- Big Buy Signal? Abe Says Panic

S&P E-mini Futures:
Held onto high prices.

News:
Feels as if the world is on hold. Yellen is due to speak today. Here's how Marketwatch summed it up:


Not buying that. Deutsche Bank noted that her upcoming appearance on June 6th could be more impactful, when she is due to address the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia.

Somehow I doubt she'll delve too much into policy addressing Harvard-Radcliffe.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to get others to hit the panic button with him at the G7 meeting, but his colleagues shut him down.


His policies seem to be creating a crisis in Japan. Perhaps he's right and it's about to go global.

FX:
Pesky USD keeps gumming up the works.

Treasuries:
Slop continues, but volume seems to be siding with higher prices.

Energy:
WTI crude is one thing not on hold today thus far, showing weakness, yet not anything major. NG jacking higher.

Metals:
Gold nearing 1200, silver and platinum down in sympathy, yet copper and palladium higher currently.

S&P Outlook:
720 Global Research contributing editor Michael Lebowitz recently noted that "since October 1, 2011, the S&P 500 has risen 82% on the heels of a 0.75% decline in earnings, but the PE ratio over that time period has risen 83%, with price gains contributing 99% to the increase."

Crazy.

Lebowitz therefore feels that "sentiment and momentum, and not fundamental rationale are the factors driving equity markets higher. To justify even a neutral position in equities we would need to see signs of stronger economic growth and revived corporate earnings growth. Unfortunately, the current outlook does not support either of those prerequisites."

Meanwhile, Jessie Felder at The Felder Report noted that "households currently have one of their largest allocations to the stock market in history. In fact, over the past thirty years they have never allocated more money to stocks relative to money market funds."


Another crazy bit of data that refutes the "Permanently Bearish" narrative.

2100 is still game though. Yes the market is looking and feeling a bit tired. Pre-holiday bias has me thinking any big break might be postponed until next week.

However, one right or wrong word from Yellen could change everything.

Holding the remains of some XIV and just added some SPY June 208 puts against it.


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