The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 6, 2016

Friday -- NFP Miss, Treasury's New Toy, Wave Count Update

S&P E-mini Futures:
Moderately down.

NFP number 160K versus 200K expected. Weak. Takes some pressure off the Fed. Wage inflation creeping in though, up 2.5%, a continuation of the previous month's 2.3% reading.

Wage inflation coupled with still-weak job growth after this much stimulus is pretty lame, and a dangerous spot for a crew of die-hard Keynesians to be attempting to navigate without running aground.

U.S. Treasury Department officials launched a new liquidity gauge, Bloomberg reported. "The world’s largest debt market is sound and traders’ ability to transact remains robust," will be posted in a blog on the government’s website. Something feels weird here. Gauge or no gauge, the bond market is not a toy, and could soon remind the markets why.

China had a rough night, and Europe is looking red so far.

Today is the new moon. So given the choppy decline thus far, perhaps a wash 'n' rinse reversal could materialize.

AUD and CAD weaker. JPY stronger stronger. EUR loved NFP. See if it holds. (So far it's not)

Higher post-NFP.

WTI crude blew its big rally yesterday. Down along with NG.

And no, it's not an electric car company's fault.

Metals woke up post-NFP.

S&P Outlook:
Posted this chart a while back. Time for a revisit and a clean up.

Voila. See notes. Can easily travel higher and lower than shown. (Can also do something completely different.)

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