The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Tuesday -- Once Again: Central Banks Vs. Fundamentals

S&P E-mini Futures:
Crazy overnight action up & down.

Tiny Tilt in ‘Brexit’ Polls Roils Global Markets (WSJ)

To me that headline says it all.

The best take thus far has to be Deutsche Bank (emphasis mine):

"The team note that the outcome of the referendum remains too close to call. But regardless of the result, political uncertainty is unlikely to subside for some time. This comes against a global growth backdrop that remains sluggish but overall little changed since the start of the year. Markets will take their near-term cues from the UK referendum: A material shock would trigger a forceful central bank response; absent a shock, attention should shift back to fundamentals."

In other words, once again it's central banks vs. fundamentals.

And fundamentals aren't looking so good.

Risk On tone remains, except for CHF which is showing possible safe haven flows.

With the amount of bulls calling for materially higher treasuries prices, these instruments better get going soon.

WTI crude giving back some recent gains. NG still hanging near rally highs.

Gold also giving back more gains, and convincing silver, platinum, palladium, and copper to do the same.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday was a flop but not a complete failure.

Above 2092.94 would likely call for another high at least. And anything below 2069.51 would probably confirm the failure.

2025.91 would then be the target in my opinion, and an even deeper correction could occur.

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