The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Tuesday -- VIX Mania, Zero Bunds, Sun Set, Bounce?

S&P E-mini Futures:
Weaker yet choppy action.

VIX rallied over 22% yesterday. Some bond guys on my stream hint that things may have gotten overblown, much like Greece in 2011 and 2012 and the 2012 Debt Ceiling. Who knows, but they're credit guys so I always note their tone.

Then Drudge weighed in...

...and announce the sun was setting on the EU...

...which was catchy, but perhaps a little too close to "The Death of Equities."

Then Blomberg got into it:

Suddenly everything is sounding like a done deal, which worries me.

I want Britain to leave the EU. I want the EU project to fail, and Germany to be Germany, France to be France, and so on.

But there are a lot of vested interests against this. And they don't play by the rules.

Anything can still happen.

This is hilarious though. "There’s no road map for European authorities facing the prospect of a British exit from their 28-nation union -- by design. Officials in Brussels are under orders not to commit any scenarios to paper to avoid alarmist leaks," Bloomberg noted.

Even they know the project is a house of cards.

Another USD and JPY surge against GBP weakness. NOK notably weaker.

So German bunds went negative yield, yet US treasuries are forming some strange candlesticks this morning (topping patterns and shooting stars), though it's early yet. There is a Fed meeting tomorrow, so perhaps some weird action is creeping in as a preview.

WTI crude and NG under pressure. Inventories due later which could shake things up.

Currently gold is the lone standout higher while silver, copper, platinum, and palladium are down.

S&P Outlook:
With choppy action in the futures, the market seems to be trying to put in a low of some sort after yesterday's carnage may have gone too far too fast.

Price action closed at a stunning 300% Fibonacci price extension, something else -- in addition to the impulsive wave count -- that I haven't seen in a very long time.

Still, nothing moves in a straight line, and being Tuesday, I'm again looking for a bounce to materialize.

Yesterday's didn't last long. I did well on the first tranche of calls but not on the second. Today will change that hopefully. The luxury is that these call buys are hedges against a mess of SPY puts.

Purely from a volume standpoint, 2088 and 2100 are game but wouldn't dent the down trend.

2075 and 2052 are still lower targets. 2076.56 is the 50 dma, so if 2075 fails for long, get out of the way.

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