The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Notes From Vacation 2

Over 2 trillion yen ($19.8 billion) of Japanese bonds sold in July are now below par. Yields damn near went positive yesterday. The yen almost broke 100.

Nothing could bring down the central bank shell game faster than Japan, so keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on the S&P 500:

The fact that rolling over at an internal trend line from 2013 and a 61.8% Fib extension does not help the bullish case.

The fact that the Dow is below its May 2015 18,351.36 high for the 2nd day in a row is also troublesome.

A failed breakout could quickly mean Turtle Soup.

At best, price may now suggest yet another rising wedge much like the previous one that topped in May 2015.

It may, or may soon, put in a 3 of a 1-2-3-4-5 structure. If so the current decline could morph into a wave 4 with a 5th into the fall.

Using that word on purpose since this scenario is well supported by social mood:

Bullish Jim Paulsen's "cascade of change" accidental subtext.

Katy Perry's dark hit single "Rise."

Marketwatch recently offering "How to get started buying stocks."

Netflix suffering a decimation of its customer base after a $2/mo. rate hike.

Bubba Watson's new jetpack.

The $200 hot dog with edible gold flakes.

A poop-themed dessert cafe in Toronto.

Massachusetts' statewide median home price is the highest ever while homeownership rates in the U.S. drop to the lowest since 1965.

Nationwide classes teaching "How to get started flipping houses."

Virgin Galactic just awarded its FAA clearance to test its tourist spaceship.

I could go on and on but you get the point.

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