The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, September 26, 2016

Monday -- Deutsche Bank, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Arnie

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but off worst levels.

Once again, European bank trubs are in the headlines, and who would have ever thought it would be Deutsche Bank having issues. But that's what derivatives do: cause unexpected outcomes.

The same could happen to JPMorgan at any time, and it could spread.

Maybe a cash crunch is why Saudi Arabia has suddenly opened the door to production cuts (to engineer a higher oil price).

Saudi Arabia has just launched a new "supportive monetary policy" too.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it.

The supportive policy comes as Saudi's foreign reserves "have declined by almost a quarter in the past two years amid the oil-price slump. The country is weighing plans to cancel more than $20 billion worth of projects and slash budgets to repair finances," Bloomberg reported.

Counter-intuitively, Saudi troubles could end up supporting crude.

Elsewhere, in Puerto Rico, yesterday was the first day in several without a brownout following the blackout that affected the entire island. So that's progress.

Sad news: Arnold Palmer died, a stand up professional with integrity. He will be missed.

Same warning of late: strength in JPY and CHF.

Prices have breathed a big sigh of relief but on little volume.

WTI crude has been quite volatile of late given the news from Saudi and pre-OPEC positioning.

NG has back off from its recent high in 5-waves. Watch and wait.

Gold remains at the upper end of its range and is slightly green as silver, platinum, palladium, and copper struggle.

S&P Outlook:
This chart was a good road map.

Now a new scenario may be needed unless price trades below 2151.31. The larger point is that a 5-wave to new highs is still expected.

The issue is that the larger "B" had very strong ticks and A/Ds which doesn't feel right to me if truly a "B" wave, but could possibly be part of a 5th wave. Too soon to tell.

Take a look at Europe, though. Not looking good thus far.

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