The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, September 26, 2016

Monday -- Deutsche Bank, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Arnie

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but off worst levels.

News:
Once again, European bank trubs are in the headlines, and who would have ever thought it would be Deutsche Bank having issues. But that's what derivatives do: cause unexpected outcomes.

The same could happen to JPMorgan at any time, and it could spread.


Maybe a cash crunch is why Saudi Arabia has suddenly opened the door to production cuts (to engineer a higher oil price).

Saudi Arabia has just launched a new "supportive monetary policy" too.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it.

The supportive policy comes as Saudi's foreign reserves "have declined by almost a quarter in the past two years amid the oil-price slump. The country is weighing plans to cancel more than $20 billion worth of projects and slash budgets to repair finances," Bloomberg reported.

Counter-intuitively, Saudi troubles could end up supporting crude.

Elsewhere, in Puerto Rico, yesterday was the first day in several without a brownout following the blackout that affected the entire island. So that's progress.

Sad news: Arnold Palmer died, a stand up professional with integrity. He will be missed.

FX:
Same warning of late: strength in JPY and CHF.

Treasuries:
Prices have breathed a big sigh of relief but on little volume.

Energy:
WTI crude has been quite volatile of late given the news from Saudi and pre-OPEC positioning.

NG has back off from its recent high in 5-waves. Watch and wait.

Metals:
Gold remains at the upper end of its range and is slightly green as silver, platinum, palladium, and copper struggle.

S&P Outlook:
This chart was a good road map.


Now a new scenario may be needed unless price trades below 2151.31. The larger point is that a 5-wave to new highs is still expected.

The issue is that the larger "B" had very strong ticks and A/Ds which doesn't feel right to me if truly a "B" wave, but could possibly be part of a 5th wave. Too soon to tell.

Take a look at Europe, though. Not looking good thus far.

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