The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Thursday -- Much At Odds With Bullish Tone

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down modestly.

Yields up Germany, Italy, and Spain. At odds with today's bullish media tone.

Germany's Commerzbank said it would cut 9,600 jobs and suspend dividends. Odd news for a bull market. Apt news for an aging bull market. Maybe it needs a Stiff Bull.

Or maybe HSBC's Murry Gunn is getting into people's heads with his latest market opinion. I was fortunate to see his presentation at the 2013 Social Mood Summit in Atlanta which predicted much of what we've seen in the markets since. So his latest call got my attention.

Notice Gunn's labeling of the entire move in the Dow since August 2015 is a "B" wave, otherwise known as a giant sucker play in Elliott parlance.

Source: Murray Gunn, HSBC
Gunn noted that a close in the Dow below 17,992 could yield a sharp 1987-style correction down to 15,000 or below. That's 1750 in the S&P cash.

Elsewhere, India's recent attacks on terrorist camps in Pakistan was its biggest military escalation since 1999. More odd behavior for a bull market. India’s rupee fell the most in three months.

While 10yr JGBs recovered from low auction demand overnight, the latest securities transactions data showed foreign investors offloaded the largest amount of Japan bonds last week since 2014.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker says U.S. “economy has reached a point where monetary policy has done what it can” -- hard to keep track of all these statements lately.

Regarding Disney's bid for Twitter, Citi weighed in with some devastating observations summarized as follows: AOL/Time Warner, My Space/NewsCorp, AOL/Verizon, My Space/Time Inc., Yahoo/Verizon

JPY weaker while CHF remains bid. USD firm with AUD & CAD weaker.

Prices giving back recent low volume gains.

WTI crude ripped 5% as OPEC agreed to a preliminary deal to trim production, then fell when it became apparent that targets for each country won't be decided until a November meeting in Vienna . . . so basically keeping pumping.

NG continues to consolidate at highs.

Continued mixed action. Gold and silver lower, platinum and copper higher, palladium lower.

S&P Outlook:
So Gunn is focused on the 2119.12 September lows. My focus is the 1991.68 June lows. But given the prevalence of waterfall declines following periods of extreme low volatility back to September 2014, I may opt to make some changes in risk management.

Until things change drastically, however, I still view the lower zone at 2094.55-2103.25 as a viable target.

As long as 2151.79 holds, I continue to see higher potential.

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