The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Thursday -- Always, Saudi Bonds, Saudi Reserves, Gaps

S&P E-mini Futures:
Bouncing around the flat line.

On the heels of yesterday's odd housing stats, Bloomberg proclaims "It's Better to Buy Than to Rent, and It Probably Always Will Be."

Always. A very misleading word in a cyclical world.

Saudi Arabia's $17.5B bond deal yesterday on top of August's $5.5B offering makes me concerned regarding oil.

Yes, they're hurting because of the plunge in oil prices, and last year's budget deficit was 10% of GDP (about $67B). And yes, their finances are getting further pinched because all those royal princes keep having more and more little princes and princesses that must be lavishly supported. But what could this mean for oil?

What if the Saudi's recent obsession with building an economy for a world beyond oil is proof that the long-held speculation that its oil fields are in decline?

Bond sales might begin to raise alarm.

USD & CHF strength. AUD & CAD weakness.

Rather muted prices once again.

WTI crude continues to correct from yesterday's new rally high. NG flat currently.

Another tepid morning, flat to down, notably palladium down 1%.

S&P Outlook:
2149.19 held for another day, along with the 2148.64 61.8% resistance.

A break of 2143.63 could complicate things for further near-term upside.

Still looks like a long slog to fill the 2163.66 gap.

Maybe the market would rather fill the larger gap at 2126.50.

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