The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Wednesday -- Now No Confidence

S&P E-mini Futures:
Continued gloom from yesterday's trading.

News:
My apologies: missed a huge confidence message yesterday.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City index reported strong gains, up 5.1% vs a year ago. Marketwatch said, "A closely watched price tracker shows no evidence of home prices succumbing to housing headwinds." That's confidence.

Today, not so much. CNBC: "Total mortgage application volume fell 4.1 percent seasonally adjusted for the week ending October 21st, compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)."

Nor are earnings anything but confident. 3M and Caterpillar got hammered, never a good sign. Under Armour showed that consumers really don't need to buy their stuff when feeling pinched.

Probably the worst message was from Apple where annual revenues declined for the first time since 2001, as did selling prices for iPhones. The horror.

FX:
An overdue USD pullback. Otherwise a mishmash of cross currents: CHF stronger while JPY weaker. CAD weaker while AUD stronger.

Treasuries:
Credit is not happy once again.

Energy:
WTI crude is down but looks a lot less of a mess than NG. Both may try to bounce. Crude may have formed a corrective decline while NG may have traced out an impulse. More time needed to develop.

Metals:
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper currently down or flat.

S&P Outlook:
Regarding yesterday's Nasdaq Composite discussion, the scenario stands until or unless 5414.84 gets exceeded.

Meanwhile the S&P 500 just opened below its 2015 high once again, and did so on very strong downticks: -1400. Nothing's broken yet, but it's early. I still think higher prices could occur Friday on good earnings from AMZN and GOOG, but still think it will be a relief rally.

And if they should disappoint? Watch out. GOOG in particular has been flirting with declining cost-per-clicks for a while now, which could be the first sign that advertisers are pulling in their horns: a leading indicator.

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