The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, November 11, 2016

Friday -- EM Hysteria

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down but looking choppy from yesterday's highs.

We awake to Emerging Market hysteria over Trump's policies. Ridiculous, unless they have correctly predicted his presidency for several months.

What we're likely seeing is the end game of a 35-year credit cycle. Credit spreads have been widening. The servicing and repayment of an ocean of US dollar-denominated debt is causing a small EM liquidity crisis. It has nothing to do with protectionism, or Libor regs, or The Donald. It's simple supply and demand.

Of far greater concern should be rising yields in the world's third-largest bond market: Italy.

It could soon become the EU's biggest problem whether it has a referendum or not.

Bloomberg reported that  last week as the capitalization of the global bond-market slid more than $1 trillion (for only the second time in two decades), global stocks gained $1.3 trillion in the same period.

That's money just sloshing around.

Lest anyone think animal spirits have left the building, a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO, one of the rarest of the rare, was just listed for sale at $56 million.

Car sales, like art, seem to be slightly lagging social mood indicators unlike fashion, but it will be interesting to see what it actually sells for, and when.

Classic Ferrari 250 GTO set to become world's most expensive car with £45 million price tag

Risk Off. JPY and CHF bid.

Volume spilled out of these the past two days. Epic. Stay alert.

WTI crude and NG down. Baker Hughes rig count 1pm.

Copper up another 3%, yet gold, silver, platinum, and palladium sitting out the Trumpflation nonsense. Red.

S&P Outlook:
Reality: most everyone on the Street was offsides once again. Now we're seeing the aftermath. Soon the real action will take place. It too will probably catch many offsides.

Yesterday took only a few minutes to negate the bearish wave count. So far the decline looks choppy, so it appears the more bullish ending diagonal count is correct.

But I can't stop feeling as if there is a surprise count in store, one that I'm overlooking. Keeping an eye on 2125.35.

Unless 2125.35 breaks, however, it will be assumed that the S&P is headed higher in a third-wave of the final 5th-wave to 2200-2500.

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