The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, November 4, 2016

Friday -- NFP

S&P E-mini Futures:
Flat all night and positive yet muted reaction thus far to NFP.

The S&P just had the longest losing streak since the Lehman crash 8 years ago. September Vogue's Fantastic Fearless Fall called another one.

Where do we go from here? Once again social mood suggests we're getting close to an inflection point.

Cover Girl recently introduced their first-ever Cover Boy (an InstaBoy with 428,000 followers). According to socionomics, gender role shifts are hallmarks of bear market mood.

Smith & Wesson is buying survival and camping equipment maker Ultimate Survival Technologies which sounds a bit like bear market mood as well.

These are not major news items, but they may represent the near-term bearishness of the recent decline and signal a reversal soon.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) just announced 161,000 new jobs, higher than forecast, and wages rose at fastest pace since 2009, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.9%.

September was revised up 191,000 new jobs vs 156,000. August was raised to 176,000 vs 167,000.

This news felt a bit hot, yet it feels like the Fed wants to let economy run. So at the moment the market seems to be taking it as "just right." This kicks the can, however, and will likely mean more ramifications down the road.

Red-red-red across Asia and Europe.

USD liked the NFP figures suggestive of higher rates. CHF still higher yet JPY softer.

Small negative reaction with prices to NFP. Ditto above.

WTI crude fresh lows on lower volume. NG may be trying to rally.

Muted reaction to NFP thus far. Silver slightly down at the moment. Gold, Platinum, palladium, and copper slightly higher.

S&P Outlook:
Grim action yesterday amid ample positive divergence and low volume. None of it mattered.

If current levels do not hold, there could be still more carnage. Upper level price target is 2074.74-2068.89 and lower level is 2048.75-2034.94 and includes a large gap at 2036.09.

My own money is on a bounce however, yet 2105 likely needs to be exceeded for it to get any legs.

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