The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Wednesday -- Bulls Calming The F*ck Down?

S&P E-mini Futures:
Up modestly, pressing recent highs.

News:
Saw some tea the other day -- Calm The F*ck Down Tea to be exact -- and didn't think much of it.

Then found this article about Starbucks and decided to dig deeper.


They've quietly raised prices for the second time this year, no less. Could Starbucks be quietly covering up for shifting or declining sales?

Hard to tell. The move comes as sales at its new focus -- its Reserve Roastery and Tasting Room -- were up 24 percent in fiscal 2016 over the previous year. "The average Roastery customer spends 4X more than at a typical Starbucks store."

No problem there except for cannibalization, perhaps.

"These Roasteries, Reserve stores and 'the premiumization of the Starbucks experience' will be CEO Howard Schultz' personal focus to set up Starbucks for long-term growth and success."

Already thought a $3 coffee was premiumized. Now he wants more?

Social mood wise, the point is this: if for some reason sales of caffeinated drinks are slowing, and thus require the added kick of premiumization to boost sales, Starbucks might be at the leading edge of an important shift.

Note that momentum in SBUX has faded since 3rd Q 2015.

The shift from a bull market mood of bigger, better, faster could yield a trend toward calming down to reflect a bear market mood retrenchment around the corner.

Keep your eye on the anti-caffeine category


FX:
Very few tea leaves to divine thus far.

Treasuries:
Rolling over after zero lift off.

Energy:
WTI crude has gone full manic this morning, rallying over 7% yet still not able to take out its 11/22 swing point.

NG not impressed either.

Metals:
Gold held 1178.20 overnight yet 1181.20 lows must hold. Silver, platinum, palladium, and copper looking better -- all green.

S&P Outlook:
Got a pullback but nowhere near the 2182 area. Internals continue to weaken, and when prices rise in the face of that, it is preferred -- by me at least -- to see them continue until they exhaust.

Up to 2222.37 looks possible. Will reassess approaching 2220.

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