The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, December 2, 2016

Friday -- NFP, Peak Caffeine, China Repo Madness, High-Volume Highs

S&P E-mini Futures:
Slightly down after NFP (178K vs 180K expected).

The predictive power of social mood is sometimes amazing.

Wednesday's post, regarding Starbucks:

"Keep your eye on the anti-caffeine category."

Thursday afternoon:

"Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz steps down."

The last time Schultz stepped down was in 2000 at the top of the tech bubble.

He stepped back in after the Lehman crash of 2008.

Now he's stepping down, again, another Fibonacci 8-years later.

Does this project a stock market bottom in 2024 with an 8-year Schultz cycle?

Schultz will stay on as Executive Chairman and, at record highs in the stock market, will focus "all in" on the upscale Reserve Roastery segment mentioned Wednesday.

Social mood wise, it's suggestive of Peak Caffeine.

Going all in on premiumization of a premium brand at a multi-year valuation premium in the stock market is the type of ebullient mood that creates tops.

Therefore, paradoxically, about as anti-caffeine as it gets. Consumers might opt for less caffeine if they don't have to "keep up with" a raging bull market.

Maybe the bull is ready to drink some of that Calm The F*ck Down tea noted on Wednesday.

More evidence of Peak Stocks:

Back in 2010, Norway's wealth fund (actually the government's pension fund for its citizens) bought a huge amount of Greek, Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese bonds.

A year later it had lost $52 billion of the trade.

Now they want to blow $130 billion on stocks.

Elsewhere, China's net weekly reverse repo injection amounted to CNY 70b vs. CNY 40b, almost double. What's up with that.

JPY and CHF providing a warning still.

Trying hard to bottom with Gundlach and Gross chiming in.

WTI crude out of No Man's Land. It's up to follow through now. It either rips above 55 or fails.

NG 5-wave decline from recent rally highs. Watch 'n' wait.

Gold needs to rally or risk deeper correction. Treasury rally should clear the way. If not, well...

Silver higher along with platinum. Palladium and copper quite red.

S&P Outlook:
ES 2184.25 stop on e-minis in pre-market.

Not sure if 2182 will get tested or not. Bot late-day SPY 221 calls yesterday. Want to be a bigger buyer at 2182 area, but wanted something just in case it wasn't hit.

Usually means it will be.

Also watching 2181.90 gap and 2182.30 swing point for potential overlap which would weaken the impulsive scenario higher.

Above, the 2207 area has a nice volume shelf for the market to shoot for, along with those high-volume highs from Wednesday.

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