The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Thursday -- Real Estate, Jobs & Income, Monte Paschi Nationalized

S&P E-mini Futures:
Flotation device.

Not a whole lotta shaking going on -- yesterday's price range was the second narrowest of 2016.

According to Zillow, using data back to 1979, metropolitan price to income ratios is, well, out of control.

The median US figure is 3.3, meaning a home costs about 3.3 times the median annual income.

In NY it's 5.5.

But in LA, it's 8.9.

Right on cue, initial jobless claims surged to 275k last week - the highest since June.

No wonder that the US homeownership rate is the lowest since 1965, according to the US Census Bureau.

With the Shiller PE Ratio back to levels only seen in 1929, 2000, and 2007, it's not likely stocks will bail out real estate any time soon.

In Italy, forget the bailout. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is getting nationalized.

MXN getting hit on news that The Wall may be one of the incoming administration's first initiatives.

Prices blew another rally attempt.

WTI crude firming after negative news (oversupply). NG rally follow through.

Gold, silver, and platinum up. Copper and palladium down. Choppy trading.

S&P Outlook:
Making progress toward 2242-2245. Not much mojo behind it, however. Muted ticks and A/Ds as the Street thins for Christmas.

Unless 2254.24 breaks, odds of a triangle increase, and odds of 2242-45 lessen.

Still anticipating higher highs unless 2187.44 breaks in a sudden, large, adverse shock, to paraphrase one of Yellen's favorite cryptic foreshadowings.

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