The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, January 20, 2017

Friday -- Inauguration

S&P E-mini Futures:
More chop.

It's all about today's inauguration.

Given the bizarre antics of CNN broadcasting what has amounted to an instruction manual for death and destruction lately (if . . . hint, hint . . . the President-elect were to be killed for some reason . . . hint. hint . . . Obama could appoint the next president!!), a smooth inauguration could itself be a bullish event.

DXY (US dollar index) met its previous swing point to the tick -- 101.73. Would like to see that level exceeded to break the decline. DX futures missed it by one tick.

USD is strong across the board today, even as Yellen walked back her recent hawkish comments with dovish ones last night, as expected.

Bit by bit, the markets are defying the Fed.

Amazing how swing points get the market to show its cards. As last Friday's swing points were broken yesterday, volume came into treasuries. Now a more complicated picture has been technically confirmed (though not a certainty of course).

WTI crude ripping higher. NG cratering.

Gold and silver red. Platinum and palladium green. Copper red. That's mixed.

S&P Outlook:
The market is in the middle of its 2017 range. Obviously it can go either way. Still seeing the edges as better places to do business. 2300 and 2240-2250.

Personal bias is higher if everything goes smoothly today and Trump sounds presidential.

Any off-topic ad-lib in his address or any violence could see things gets weird.

Still leaning toward weakness to occur after a new high.

Obamacare repeal, border-tax & overall tax reform, NAFTA renegotiation, and immigration are not the sort of things that will get resolved smoothly, even with the same party holding the presidency and both houses of Congress.

It will be up to other things, viewed favorably, to propel the market higher, and it's not certain what they are.

Earnings? Valuations? Guidance? Business optimism? Fed policy? Massive infrastructure spending? A business president?

All are possible. All have potential conflicts.

So once again, it seems we're back to technicals.

And they're looking tired.

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