The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, January 27, 2017

Friday -- New Moon, CPCs, $10 Coffee, Record Valuations

S&P E-mini Futures:
Mostly flat to higher.

Very surprised to see NQ futures higher this morning after last night's earnings.

Source: ZeroHedge
Google once again reported fantastic earnings yet got hammered on cost-per-clicks, something I've seen decay for a while, which could be suggesting a softening digital ad market.

Google's 4Q cost-per-click was -15% while the estimate was 10.7%.

This follows last quarter's cost-per-click decline of 11% which was, again, far greater than the 4.8% decline analysts had been predicting.

Google keeps blaming it on the shift from desktop to mobile, but I don't buy it.

It sounded as if analysts on last night's conference call didn't buy some things either.

Starbucks missed on revenues, so they'll have to sell a lot of those new $10 lattes to escape that 8-year Schultz cycle.

Back to 1999 valuation levels for the Dow:

Source: ZeroHedge
Two other valuation facts noted by the "evil" ZeroHedge:

-- "The cyclically-adjusted Price/Earnings ratio of the US stock market is now at its highest level since the 2000 crash, and higher than it was before the 2008 crash.

-- "Enterprise Value to EBITDA (a measure of a company’s core business operating cashflow), US stocks are also at their most expensive levels since the 2000 crash."

One last chart, likely from Tom Backshall, a credit guy who is the main reason why I read ZH, shows the latest disconnect between rates and equities:

Source: ZeroHedge
Another mixed day between AUD & CAD and CHF & JPY.

MXN getting pounded vs USD.

Positive divergence in 2s vs 5s-30s. Perhaps the C-leg of the ABC is about to start. Again, the ABC structure is still just a gut feeling, but am gaining conviction.

WTI crude & NG mirror image of yesterday, crude down, NG crushed.

Copper turning green amid the continued red. Gold holding a 38% retracement thus far of its recent rally, while HUI & XAU hold recent gains. Watching this closely.

S&P Outlook:
As overvalued as equities are, they showed little sign of backing off yesterday. We'll see if today's new moon has any influence.

Ticks and A/Ds were weak, the latter closing negative.

S&P up-volume collapsed.

But the VIX went nowhere.

Not thinking the S&P has given up the ghost just yet and is probably just hesitating, as was surmised yesterday. Would like to see another higher high which should bring about even clearer internals.

The tight cluster of Fib extension targets remains at 2302.73, 2302.83, and 2305.50.

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