The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Tuesday -- Hot China PMI, Scary HIBOR

S&P E-mini Futures:
Up strongly since Friday's lows.

News:
Markets are loving the latest reflationary China PMI news along with euro zone inflation expectations closing in on the ECB's 2% target.

Markets are choosing to ignore the fact that 3-month HIBOR is back to levels not seen since last January when China's market implosion rocked the world, showing renewed stress between Hong Kong banks.

Source: Zero Hedge

And right on time, the ECB is preparing to scale back the pace of its QE.

FX:
CHF and JPY weaker. EUR much weaker since its huge spike days ago, taking all of it back and more.

USD ripping higher.

Treasuries:
Prices failing yet again.

Energy:
WTI crude has popped on yet more favorable news regarding non-OPEC production cuts. Good. It will need all the help it can get if volume and open interest continue to dry up.

NG cratering over 6% due to the same thing: volume and OI cratered.

Meanwhile, from Bloomberg this morning:

Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth

Right on the heels of China's renewed interest in the dirty stuff.

Metals:
Platinum, palladium, and copper ripping. Silver getting into the mood, yet gold sitting it out thus far.

S&P Outlook:
Friday morning's patience yielded benefits. The S&P did indeed probe lower levels, getting down to 2233.62 before signs of life appeared. Today's follow through is welcome.

Would like to see a strong close above 2250.

Stop remains 2213.35, yet getting below Friday's 2233.62 would begin to question the bulls.

Working longs against it.

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