The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Wednesday -- DowTwentyThousand

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher, yet 5 waves up from Monday's low.

Yesterday the headlines celebrated the S&P's all-time record high close.

Today should be all about Dow 20,000+.

If it isn't, something's wrong.

The market is continuing to follow carrots: the Democrats' $1 trillion infrastructure proposal being the latest.

Likely just political posturing and little else.

Meanwhile, a must-read for its social mood overtones:

CHF & JPY stronger. USD bouncing.

Prices under pressure again. Wondering if a large ABC rally is in play from the December lows, with A just completed, B in progress, and a C rally before the larger trend reasserts itself.

The larger trend being lower prices and higher yields.

And get ready to hear a chorus of pundits saying that rising rates are bullish, even though since 1981 treasury prices and equity prices have, for the most part, trended higher together.

WTI crude and NG both down at the moment but looking like they want to bounce.


S&P Outlook:
Deep retracements suggest trading ranges. Shallow retracements suggest trends. The S&P turned up from a shallow retracement on Monday and ripped higher.

There is a new moon on Friday along with too many clustered Fibonacci ~2300 extension targets to count, some as high as 2379.39.

A few simple rules: rarely do I step in front of a trend before a new or full moon. I never trade the hour of the European close, and very rarely, if ever, trade counter-trend on Wednesdays.

That last rule alone saved me from shorting two of the most vicious rallies since the election.

The 2250 area will just have to wait awhile.

Unless DowTwentyThousand gets foiled again.

Also watching ES 2282.03 which should not fail, or else it could be a first indication that the momentum is fading.

No comments:

Post a Comment