The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 6, 2017

Monday -- Epic Comeback

S&P E-mini Futures:
Modestly lower from a deep retracement rally.

Didn't watch the Super Bowl, didn't bet. But would have taken Atlanta due to too much Brady hype. Last score I saw was 28-3 Atlanta at the half.

The thought occurred to me then that if Brady really was the greatest, there would be an epic comeback-from-behind win.

Was aghast to find that it actually happened.

It's never over until it's over.

We need to keep our head in the game at all times, especially in a world increasingly run by bankers.

Behold then the Obtuse Headline of the Day:

Aren't there already 6 or 7 Goldmanites in the Trump cabinet? Can't they figure things out?

Recal the first thing that the incoming Treasury Secretary said, former Goldman partner Steven Mnuchin, was that the dollar was way too high.

A weak dollar is good for Goldman.

Spanish and Italian yield continue to charge higher. European markets are lower. French-German spreads remain elevated.

There are also rumblings from Germany that Merkel might have finally met an opponent that could unseat her, and German default risk has spiked above Brexit levels.

Finally, a simple chart that illustrates the folly of the assumption that rising rates are always good for equities:

We're living in a credit and debt world now. Dead simple.

Oh, and if you doubt we live in interesting times:

Weaker commodity currencies AUD & CAD. JPY stronger. EUR lower. USD back above 100.

Fresh strength in prices amid chop.

WTI crude is still a choppy mess. Maybe the worst is over for a little while in NG.

Palladium the standout here as metals print green.

S&P Outlook:
Price filled the 2294.69 gap Friday and spent the rest of the weekend up there. But until new highs come, there is a danger of retracing the whole rally and filling the lower gaps at 2265.20 and 2238.83.

A/Ds looked great Friday which kept my powder dry on the short side. Ticks didn't confirm, however.

Cash might be in a better position to hit new highs than futures, but are quite overbought at the moment.  However futures may have just made a corrective decline in the overnight and pre-market. So the pattern is still unclear and has options.

All things being equal, the momentum is probably still higher until 2287.88 gets breached.

Maybe wait 'Til Tuesday for bigger trades.

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