The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Tuesday -- Twitter, Wall Street & Madison Avenue, Germany Or Greece, Bulls Or Bears

S&P E-mini Futures:
Pre-Fed chop.

Poor birdy.

Actually, Madison Avenue Is Giving Up On Twitter.

"Twitter's biggest problem being reflected in analysts' stock targets is the loss of faith among advertisers."

Twitter's ad model is, well, not much of an ad model. The Facebook is the far, far better alternative for media buyers, along with Google.

Google hasn't had many problems with Madison Avenue, but if ad fraud & questionable metrics becomes an issue with the Facebook -- one that truly sticks -- Wall Street will be forced to give up on it too.

Questionable metrics seem far more pervasive than just the Facebook. Do I really believe there are over 26K actual humans following me on Stocktwits?

Moving on, forget Greece and Italy for a sec. German ZEW reported slower economic growth, even with a weaker EUR and cheaper oil for its exports. Again, what if it's not the EZ periphery that causes the next panic but the core.

China's growth engine surprised to the upside and commodities are once again believing it will save the world.

Yellen testimony at 10am flanked by other Fed speakers earlier and later. Cross-currents could abound.

The stock market has reached a valuation of $20 trillion. So has the national debt.

Another mixed up day. USD lower, EUR higher, commodity currencies loving China, yet CHF & JPY sending smoke signals.

Bitcoin back above $1000. When I first heard of Bitcoin, in 2009, it was .06 cents.

Pre-Fed indecision.

WTI crude higher, NG lower.

Everything green except copper. Given the China news, copper is acting like the only sober one in the pub. Or perhaps it's seeing through the news to a different reality.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday was a gap-n-go. A few jerky moments of hesitation around 10-11am but levitation carried much higher.

S&P cash got to 2331.58, in the middle of two Fib zones: 2326.26-2329.35 and 2332.69-2341.22.

The pullback from yesterday's high has been choppy so far, thus most likely corrective.

Intraday A/Ds are fading while daily A/Ds remain strong like bull.

Yesterday's A/D ratio closed at 1.28 which, for record highs, is weak. Volume was muted. TRIN is steadily falling into the sell zone (overbought).

Weak markets can merrily head higher on pure momentum. It's what happens when the momentum slows that often causes the trouble.

Calls are dirt cheap, and remain the safest way to play upside for now, in my opinion. Finally, more calls than puts were bought yesterday. Bears may finally be showing signs of capitulating.

$20 trillion in debt, a $20 trillion stock market valuation, bulls on parade, and bears on the run.

Here's where it gets interesting.

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