The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Tuesday -- SNAPPED, Deutsche Bank, China's Magic Reserves, Retail Inflows

S&P E-mini Futures:
Another choppy overnight pullback.

Social Mood:

Sounds like Millennials have expensive tastes lately. Maybe SNAP didn't join the rush to luxury fast enough:

WhatsApp joins arsenal of online luxury amid race for customers

Deutsche Bank dropped again as much as 3% to a new 2017 low, hot on the heels of the biggest fall in German industrial orders since 2009.

German industrial orders slumped 7.4% in January, nearly three times as steep as the 2.5% fall expected by economists.

The ripple effect: Italian 10-year yields rose 6.5 bps while Spanish 10-year yields fell 2.6 bps. If Germany falls, Italy can kiss its Target2 bailout goodbye.

Comic relief: China FX reserves "unexpectedly" rebounded above $3 trillion.

French President Hollande: "It Is My Ultimate Duty To Prevent A Le Pen Victory" -- that's why she keeps gaining in the pols, because social mood is shifting away from the establishment.

Mood also seems to be shifting in the market too: a little too dark, too quickly.

First it was Bank Of America's flip-flop from bull to bear, then Goldman piling on.

Now JPMorgan has warned: "We see an increasing risk of a sell-off in the near term."

While some backing and filling is long overdue, it does not yet appear that social mood, while shifting negatively underfoot, has finished its ascent to peak positive mood.

But it sure is getting closer.

JPMorgan commented that the recent massive inflow to equities is the latest "Great Rotation" -- not from bonds into stocks, but from "smart money" to retail investors who have finally joined party, "while institutional investors appear to have overall reduced rather than increased their equity exposure YTD."

Therefore we could be setting up for some "surprising disappointment" soon before a final upthrust to new highs that erases any memory of lower prices once and for all. Right on time.

Strong MXN & NOK in the face of a USD bounce. Noted. (See crude oil too)

No sign of a meaningful bounce yet. Things could get real -- quickly -- if prices can't rally and instead choose to follow 2s lower.

Long list of red commodities this morning but WTI crude isn't one of them. NG is though.


Copper contending with the biggest inventory inflow to LME warehouses in 15 years, and growing growing stockpiles in China (watch stockpiles instead of questionable data).

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday may have made a short-term low. Price could easily make a deep retracement of the decline from 2400.98, all the way to the gap at 2395.96 if it wanted.

It still does not appear that the true low has been put in yet, however, so allowances should be made for lower gap at 2363.64 or the 38% Fib support level at 2349.88.

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