The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Tuesday -- More Fedspeak, More Surprising Disappointment, VIX Rich Kid Complacence

S&P E-mini Futures:
Giving back some overnight gains.

Mostly green in Asia and Europe with notable exceptions being China and France.

More Fedspeak today:
George, Yellen, Kaplan, and Powell speak today.

Bloomberg's Richard Breslow has captured the current fourth wave "surprising disappointment" quite well: "When stocks go down, everyone still goes into 'The sky is falling' mode."

Seeing a lot of Elliott wave counts leaning toward "the top is in." I'm not there. It would be the most perfectly telegraphed top in history.

Bitcoin up another 2%, holding above 1000.

USD firming. CHF & JPY stronger as well.

The way volume is disappearing suggests the recent rally is a bounce, possibly another ABC variety, before lower prices to follow. Patience required.

WTI crude rallied when and where it needed to, up over 1% currently. NG down.

Gold and silver higher. Platinum, palladium, and copper down. Thinking the latter, with their heavy industrial usage, are sending the most consistent macro signals that the "synchronized global rebound" is a mirage.

S&P Outlook:
VIX may have spiked yesterday, but quickly gave it all back, and is still demonstrating as much complacence as the richkidsofinstagram.

Source: richkidsofinstagram
Yesterday's grim mood gave way to an epic bounce. NQ gave the tell by not confirming the new low in the E-minis.

Thinking we've either made, or are close to making, an "A" low of a larger ABC, or possibly the fourth wave (iv) low itself (lower odds). So far it's looking like the A-wave.

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